Strategy Overview

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I have trained myself since young to think from the top-down. When playing chess, there is always a general evaluation of the position based on pattern recognition. There can be an immediate tactic to capitalize on or most of the time, it boils down to evaluation of certain factors to see the biggest picture before narrowing to the specifics in calculating variations. Same with my trading and investment methods.

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Since I have come to appreciate macros, I stand on the two pillars of risk management and liquidity. I would never trade and/or invest with the absence of either one.

It starts with the macros. Macros drive sentiment. Sentiment drives prices. Macros move the broader market which ripples down to sectors, industries and finally the individual stocks. I track economic trends, central bank policies and evaluate where the liquidity is plus where it might flow to. My liquidity model gives me the big picture while my seasonal model narrows it down further. I further eliminate my risks via fundamental and technical analysis utilizing proper money management and risk/reward analysis. The combination of liquidity, seasonal/cyclical and sector rotation models diminishes my risk even further.

I trade short, medium and long term in various asset classes (Equities, Commodities, Currencies, REITs and Bonds). My focus is mainly in derivatives (options) trading spreads and outright longs for puts/calls while investing in the underlying for medium-long term. Risk management is core and I am very risk averse. Occasionally, I find some illogical price movements due to news and seek to capitalize on that as any short term imbalances and/or distortions will eventually correct themselves.